How does the HUPX DAY-AHEAD Spot Support price forecast work?
Working with fundamental factors
The market price is dominantly determined by fundamental elements of the market, i.e. by the consumption, cross border capacities, available generation and the cost of generation.
DAY-AHEAD Spot Support models reaction of each power plant generator on price signals.
DAY-AHEAD Spot Support models reaction of consumption in all countries on temperature deviations.
DAY-AHEAD Spot Support takes into account day ahead renewable energy forecasts.
DAY-AHEAD Spot Support takes into account maintenance of all power plants.
Working with human factors
Behavior of people makes a huge impact on HUPX price. We model behavior of traders on certain market conditions in order to fine tune the HUPX price forecast. The most influential human factors which make an impact on HUPX price and which we model daily are:
Nominations of cross border deliveries by traders between Slovenian and Hungarian markets.
Nominations of cross deliveries by traders on the Romanian-Serbian border.
Deliveries of traders to Greece or from Greece
Selling of Bosnian power utilities
Selling of Bulgarian power plants
Flexibilities of deliveries contracts to Albania
Working with neighboring markets
Spot support takes into account expected prices on Czech, German/Austrian and Italian markets which do not belong to the HUPX region, but do make an impact on HUPX price realization and behavior of traders.
What does the HUPX DAY-AHEAD Spot Support forecast show?
Our HUPX DAY-AHEAD forecast shows the expected price expectation for the whole HUPX price region. Hourly prices HUPX prices will deviate from our forecast depending on the:
Amount of non-coupled exchanges between HUPX, BSP-SOUTHPOOL, CROPEX, SEPEX, OPCOM, IBEX, LAGIE exchanges.
Higher deliveries of traders from HUPX towards BSP or vice versa
Too high deliveries from/to Italian or Greek markets due to the panic.
Such effects can only be partially forecasted and modeled since they depend too much on behavior of traders.
However, in the long term, average HUPX DAY-AHEAD spot support forecasts should reflect the realized HUPX day ahead price.